{"id":1553,"date":"2017-02-16T15:00:16","date_gmt":"2017-02-16T15:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/insight\/ca-answers-are-reflation-trades-reversing-or-just-pausing\/"},"modified":"2023-10-23T22:42:41","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T02:42:41","slug":"ca-answers-are-reflation-trades-reversing-or-just-pausing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/insight\/ca-answers-are-reflation-trades-reversing-or-just-pausing\/","title":{"rendered":"Are \u201cReflation Trades\u201d Reversing or Just Pausing?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_3700\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3700\" class=\"image-caption-below wp-image-3700 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/Wade-OBrien-150px.jpg\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3700\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wade O&#8217;Brien<\/p><\/div>\n<p><em>Answers to our clients\u2019 questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election (such as the stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields) look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others\u2014particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities\u2014is challenged.<\/p>\n<p>The US election was not the only driver of gains for global risk assets through year-end; improving earnings prospects and rebounding global economic growth also played a role. Nonetheless, certain US assets saw a discernible impact as uncertainty faded and markets rushed to price in the expected effects of an assumed switch from monetary to fiscal stimulus. Expectations of corporate tax cuts, higher government spending, and reduced regulatory burdens all combined to give equities a boost. Particular winners included US small-cap stocks (which returned around 14% from the election through the end of 2016), financial sector equities, and a variety of natural resource\u2013related assets. Conversely, bonds sold off as interest rate curves priced in higher inflation and growth; rate-sensitive sectors like REITs also underperformed. The DXY dollar index rose around 4% through year-end, bolstered by the assumption that faster US growth and higher rates could attract foreign capital and higher trade tariffs might improve the country\u2019s balance of trade.<\/p>\n<p>The pause in some of these trades since the beginning of the year reflects several dynamics. US small-cap stocks have returned 2.7% year-to-date through February 13, underperforming large-cap equivalents by almost 200 basis points (bps). Small-cap US companies may benefit more from proposed corporate tax cuts given their higher reliance on US revenue (and thus higher effective tax rates), and are less exposed than multinationals to the stronger US dollar. However, headwinds like near-record valuations (both normalized and short term) will threaten future performance. And to a lesser extent, the rising cost of their floating-rate loans, which are prevalent among more leveraged small-cap companies, will also threaten future performance.<\/p>\n<p>US Treasury yields were stable in January and have dipped slightly into February, also diverging from their recent trend. The yield on the ten-year bond rose around 60 bps after the election, accentuating a sell-off underway since late September. This move seems significant, but less so considering the significant <em>plunge<\/em> in rates during the first half of last year; in July, the yield had fallen below 1.4%. Net-net, the yield on the ten-year Treasury ended 2016 just 20 bps higher than where it started, despite improving data and the potential for new policies to generate further inflation. Given this, pressure on rates may be biased to the upside. That said, the weak fourth quarter US GDP number is a reminder that it will take more than confidence and rising asset prices to boost activity, and elevated political risk in other developed markets may keep a lid on how high US rates can ultimately go.<\/p>\n<p>The US dollar\u2019s ascent has also taken a break recently. Like small-cap stocks, the currency looks overvalued and, by our metrics, is approaching the top decile of its historical valuation. Yet the dollar could prove to be more in demand if US economic growth substantially outpaces that of peers, if interest rate differentials between US bonds and global equivalents remain elevated, and if some of the new administration\u2019s proposed tax policies curb US demand for foreign currencies and narrow the trade deficit. At the same time, the strong currency seems anathema to President Donald Trump\u2019s professed goals of boosting US exports and competitiveness, and depressed currencies such as the euro and sterling could quickly rally if some of the political uncertainty clouding their outlook clears. While seemingly little-noticed in the post-election media frenzy, Eurozone GDP growth actually exceeded that of the United States in 2016, and the January reading for the composite UK PMI (a broad measure of manufacturing and service industry health) at 55.5 is, perhaps surprisingly, among the strongest of all developed economies.<\/p>\n<p>Our assessment of these recent reversals is that the outperformance of US small-cap equities could experience more than just a short-term pause, even in the unlikely event the new administration is able to quickly deliver promised regulatory and tax reforms. The recent calm in the bond market may prove more temporary, as stronger US growth and inflation\u2014or other dynamics such as foreign central banks rolling back asset purchases\u2014could push rates higher. Given the unpredictability of currency moves, we are reluctant to make much of the recent minor sell-off in the US dollar. Valuations seem stretched and policies could disappoint, but history suggests cycles are long, and this one may have more room to run.<\/p>\n<p><em>Wade O&#8217;Brien\u00a0is a Managing Director on Cambridge Associates\u2019 Global Investment Research team.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Originally published on February 14, 2017<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">This report is provided for informational purposes only. The information presented is not intended to be investment advice. Any references to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only. The information herein does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. Some of the data contained herein or on which the research is based is current public information that CA considers reliable, but CA does not represent it as accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. Nothing contained in this report should be construed as the provision of tax or legal advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Broad-based securities indexes are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with managed accounts or investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly in an index. Any information or opinions provided in this report are as of the date of the report, and CA is under no obligation to update the information or communicate that any updates have been made. Information contained herein may have been provided by third parties, including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management, and may not have been independently verified.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Answers to our clients\u2019 questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election (such as the stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields) look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"class_list":["post-1553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","topics-portfolio-strategy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are \u201cReflation Trades\u201d Reversing or Just Pausing? - Cambridge Associates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1553\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are \u201cReflation Trades\u201d Reversing or Just Pausing? - Cambridge Associates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Answers to our clients\u2019 questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. 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